I do not know, as I begin this solemn rhythm on my keyboard whether I hit publish on this post or not. If you find yourself reading these words, then know that I did indeed do so.
I can feel the new world/s being born.
They do not feel industrial.
Humankind’s peak industrialization, energy consumption, and technologically driven societal systems have not transformed themselves in response to the massive changes the era’s footprint on the planet has caused. They dimly recognize their own fragility in the face of the massive transformations underway and thus struggle to maintain the status quo.
While the loudest voices create confusion over which version of reality prevails, it seems more likely that there is more than one version playing out across the world. This is easier to see from an environment where English exists but does not dominate the discourse.
It is now almost 2 decades since I last saw something on the horizon. The last time was the future platform that the mobile phone was going to become for post-industrial innovation, particularly in developing countries. That vision took 18 months to come clear, peaking in mid-2007. The years since then have only shown the growth and adoption of mobile money in emerging market’s informal economies, and the emergent sectors of productive employment – regardless of whether they are recognized to be counted by the data gatherers.
The vision I am now beginning to discern comes accompanied by a few lessons as well, from the last time.
First, this is not a 3 to 5 year cycle nor will systemic transformation be visible for mainstream recognition for at least 10 years. Be prepared for the long haul. The first 3 to 5 years after a trend cycle has turned on the great wheel are confused and full of chaos. Massive changes are recognized to be underway. Not all strategies succeed. It is a period of time where signs are difficult to read and great errors in decision making can be made. Lucrative future lines of revenue may be abandoned because the long haul nature of the trend was not recognized. There are 3 to 5 year market and consumer trends that designers at the fuzzy front end are able to discern and incorporate into their work. This is not the same.
If indeed its at the same kind of scale or even greater than the mobile telephony induced transformation of lower socioeconomic income economies then it is more than a market and consumer trend. There will be self-determined changes to lifestyle being made across populations and groups as a part of this transformation, and it is these signs that I am now going by.
New Delhi has recently made the list of the top 10 global cities ranked for their urban rewilding efforts.
This is not the uncaring India I have known for the past 50 odd years, where the environment came last after Maslow’s primitive hierarchy of needs because even the humans missed out. There is an awareness of the natural environmental pressures that industrialized urbanization is creating that was missing in practice. Its just not done to not care anymore. It could just be New Delhi, where I hear even the local pariah dogs have ample blankets donated by an animal rights NGO. But I suspect it is not.
I do not know yet how I will prepare for this long haul transformation of my world. I have experienced many since first leaving India in 1970.
