Posts Tagged ‘uncertainty’

Design research as a method for discovering & understanding the world around us

Variously known as User Centered Design (UCD) or Human Centered Design (HCD), the fundamental philosophy underlying the designer’s approach to problem solving is that of discovery – “figuring out how to make something that will work in this context”.

Innovation, invention and novelty rarely have pre-scripted processes due to the as yet unknown, and often, uncertain nature of the outcome. The design process acknowledges this by embedding various techniques for discovery of the problem space as well as the possible solutions.

These include:

  1. Exploration –  1. the action of exploring an unfamiliar area. 2. the thorough examination of a subject.;
  2. Prototyping –  an early sample, model, or release built to test a concept or process or to act as a thing to be replicated or learned from;
  3. Iteration –  the act of repeating a process with the aim of approaching a desired goal, target or result (2);
  4. Experimentation – a procedure carried out to verify, refute, or establish the validity of a hypothesis. May vary greatly in goal and scale, but always rely on repeatable procedure and logical analysis of the results.

This post was inspired by a twitter conversation with Dr Dan Lockton. It is the first of a series of explorations on our adaptation and evolution of the methods available for design research as tools for discovery and understanding where data may be inadequate or non-existent such as the informal economy in emerging African economies.

Please use the category UCSD to discover more on this subject.

Uncertainty and The Prepaid Economy: Time and Money

prepaid-globalgsma-2011-2013

Uncertainty characterizes the entire global Prepaid Economy and is the underlying driver for decision making.

Systems are unreliable

Inadequate infrastructure, variability in basic services (will we have electricity this morning?), obsolete or incomplete systems; all of these, and more, are part and parcel of life in the emerging regions of the world. Will we wake up to find the capital city grinding to a halt because riots have erupted over the price of onions? None can say.

All of these elements act together to create a far more volatile operating environment which adds up to an uncertainty around timing. Will an accident along the main artery cause hours long grid lock familiar to anyone from Lagos to Lahore?

Cash flow is irregular

For the vast majority employed in the informal sector, regular predictable paychecks are not the norm.  Irregular unpredictable income streams from a variety of sources are the norm, and daily wage workers are not guaranteed that work will be available the following morning.

Even the farmer faces uncertainty, though her fields might be fruitful and ready for harvest. Seasonal ebbs and flows in cash flow are part of the rhythm of daily life outside of the formal economy’s calender year with its predictable regularity.

Smaller businesses too may feel less secure in cash intensive markets, dependent as they are on ensuring that incoming revenues must cover outgoing expenses.

Uncertainty is the only certainty

No one, however is immune from the larger uncertainties of their environment. Strikes, riots, power cuts or floods – these can bring entire cities grinding to a halt.

And the lower down the income stream you are, the greater the impact of this uncertainty. Without float, planning becomes a challenge and community is your insurance in times of need. Juggling to minimize the volatility between income and expense is an ongoing exercise in trade-offs.

Empowering oneself through control of time and money

In the prepaid economy, the greater the span of control you have over timing of a payment – its frequency and periodicity, and the amount to be spent, the greater your ability to plan and manage your finances. From chaos and disorder, one can find ways to negotiate and be flexible, whilst striving to keep one’s head above water.

This characteristic manifests itself in a wide variety of forms – purchasing patterns; choice of cooking fuel; social and flexible weights and measures; a wee bit of wriggle room to negotiate in case of the unexpected.

This is the second article in The Prepaid Economy Series. Here is a link to the IntroductionThe next one will take a closer look at the importance of flexibility and negotiability – that wee bit of wriggle room, left for the unexpected.

Sampling uncertainty

This drawing was made by Jeroen Meijer of JAM visual design, Amsterdam, earlier this week during the workshop we held on Monday, November 26th, 2012.

Its a visualization of the chart I use to show how participants were sampled for the prepaid economy project. The axes represent the individual’s ability to accurately predict either timing or amount of their cash flow status, and thus, their ability to plan. By all rights, this should be on the Prepaid Economy blog where this topic has been an ongoing matter for discussion but I wanted to share the communication potential of this format.

Its also a way to segment the undifferentiated masses in the informal economy, where traditional means to segment a population demographic such as income level or education may not be relevant or skew results leading to misinterpretation. What if one could cluster by patterns of cash flow, and thus, consumer behaviour?