Posts Tagged ‘marketing’

Competitive Advantage & Customer Relationships: Lessons from Market Mummies of Ghana

Source: Gerry van Dyke presentation

Source: Gerry van Dyke presentation

How would you differentiate yourself in this informal retail market? Ghanaian market research guru Gerry van Dyke took a closer look at the market ‘mummies’ – Mama Biashara, as we call her – and their consumer marketing techniques in the “non-label environment”. His findings form an excellent foundation for understanding marketing and customer relationships in the informal sector. You can explore insights from his presentation here (PDF).

The story that follows tells the interesting marketing skills that reside in the traditional African market and the similarities in the tools employed by modern marketing.

An Africa Expert on Beneficiaries maybe the wrong Expert on Customers and Consumers

DSC03706

LifeStraw, kept hidden in case donor comes to check. Rural western Kenya, June 2012 (Photo Credit: Niti Bhan)

As the African markets increase in opportunity and visibility, the corresponding increase in need for experienced personnel is also felt. Many consumer facing companies hire “old Africa hands”, often former employees of various nonprofits and their projects. The assumption is that knowledge and experience among “poor” Africans implies knowledge and experience of African consumers and markets. This is most visible among social enterprises who struggle with the tension between social benefits and sustainable revenues.

Why is this assumption of expertise a problem?

Beneficiaries are likely to be perceived differently, and are also likely to behave differently than if they were customers in the market for the same product or service. An analysis of attitudes and assumptions had been conducted with a client organization facing this challenge with their top management team back in 2012.

What are the biases and barriers facing both the company and their customer base when a for profit company in a high growth, stable consumer market is managed like a humanitarian NGO experienced in high conflict contexts of extreme adversity?

Here are the findings:

From the company side:

  • Guilt over making profits or revenue
  • Anything goes because anything free has always been gratefully accepted by singing and dancing – impact on product and service design, as well as quality
  • Poor, dumb, savages who don’t understand the good we’re doing
  • Need help, training, aid to buy our product or service
  • Little or no accountability traditional in donor supported charitable initiatives as compared to corporate reports on sales performance and customer retention to give one example.
  • Thus, patronization embedded in the experienced “knowledge” of the population

On the customer base or target audience:

  • Will accept anything gratefully, no marketing required
  • Will say or do anything for freebies – higher mistrust of customer’s ability to choose or decide
  • Will seek to game the system or the market research
  • Thus, treating demanding customers like passive beneficiaries without agency, even while attempting to sell them something.

Type of companies who have already failed due to this problem include social enterprises, social impact organizations, Bottom of the Pyramid marketing, public private partnerships. That is, any organization that relies on third party experts for the voice of the customer or to identify end user needs and aspirations.

Professionals stand above the competition: Branding lessons from street vendors of Africa

zimbabwe-flashy-vendors

Zimbabwe

Farai Mushayademo’s distinctive dress sense, with a different shiny suit every day, makes him a darling of customers and helps him beat the “rising competition,” he said.

This article on the increasing competition for the burgeoning informal economy of Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, came less than a month after we saw this smartly turned out fruit vendor plying his trade in the streets of Accra, Ghana.

cth8lgkwcaauety

Ghana

For communicating brand quality, the Ghanaian gentleman surely deserves an award. His read to eat fruit was as smartly packaged and labelled as any consumer brand in a supermarket.

cth8lhbxyaqv0lyI’ve written before on the topic of ‘Branding the Unbranded’ – whether its the humble avocado being sold by the side of the road in upcountry Kenya, or a designer BBQ meant for the emerging middle class – but these distinctively dressed gentlemen on two opposite ends of the vast African continent come under an entirely new category of product and service innovation happening in the informal sector.

How do you set yourself apart in the unbranded informal economy in response to rising competition is a challenge. Ghanaian market women’s customer development and retention strategies in a commodity market (potatoes) were documented a decade ago, and found to rely on social skills, including non verbal ones such as eye contact and encouraging smiles. Yet, her advantage is that her potential customers are slowly walking through the market, looking for the best potatoes to purchase. She has the time to call out and attract their attention.

For these men on the streets, walking through traffic, that advantage is fleeting or nonexistent. They must grab attention *and* communicate their messaging in an instant (can they have been reading Gladwell’s blink?) – and the fruit vendor, with his spotless white gloves, and packaged fruit, clearly rises above the rest with his strategy.

The police are also, one hopes, less likely to chase a man in a three piece suit off the street. This is one pan African trend worth keeping an eye on.

Seasonality as an element of contextual planning for emerging consumer markets

livestock flows eac fewsnetGrowing up as a Hindu expat in multicultural ‘West Malaysia’ of the 1970s and 80s, it was a matter of course that every festival would be a big occasion. We had Christmas in December, and Chinese New Year soon after, to be followed by Hari Raya (Eid) and Deepawali – each of them deserving of TV specials and decorations on the streets.

Seasonality of cash flows and income streams in the informal and rural economy translated in the urban areas as festivals triggered a boom in consumer sales. India’s formal economy still keeps watch on the onset of the annual monsoons, as those rains will have documented impact on their 3rd quarter sales in the peak festival season of October and November, leading into the wedding season.

In Eastern Africa, this seasonality is seen, among other things, in the lives of pastoralists and livestock farmers. As Eid Al Adhar approaches in a few days, livestock sales for the annual sacrifice are reaching their peak. Trade in meat is one of the staple income sources in the arid lands and the Port of Mombasa is one of the keys to the distribution networks.

The livestock trade to the Middle East accounts for 60 percent of Somaliland’s gross domestic product and 70 percent of its jobs.

This, however, is changing, as the Port of Berbera will soon receive millions of dollars of investment in improved infrastructure. The element of seasonal cycles over the course of the natural year, however, will not change. And this is worth noting for those considering the emerging consumer markets in the developing world.

Beyond word of mouth, however, it is hard to get a proper idea about the economic impact of Ramadan. Perhaps because of sensitivities around dealing with a religious institution, international organisations such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and United Nations Development Programme have not conducted research on the precise economic impact of the custom.

FMCG majors already feeling the pinch of shrinking domestic markets are finally taking note of this entire opportunity space. In Indonesia, Unilever, Beiersdorf and L’Oreal are making halal face creams and shampoos to court Muslims as sales in Western markets taper off.

There are patterns of trade around major holidays in each region, be it Chinese New Year or Dussehra, and the informal sector prepares for, and relies upon, these expected bumper ‘harvests’ in their cash flow. It will be interesting to watch what happens in the context of the African consumer market as the Asian giants begin to eye it seriously as the last frontier for significant growth.

First world trends: Financial inclusion, the unbanked, and the prepaid business model

20150905_USC606

The Economist explains just how expensive banking can be for the lower income population, even in the United States. Financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked must include cost/benefit analysis based on the limitations of income streams of those whom they hope to serve. The cost of ownership is often overlooked in current day literature, which tends to focus on access to formal financial services, whether digital or otherwise. As the data clearly shows, value for money is a critical part of access, and a deciding factor in the choice to remain unbanked.

Life is expensive for America’s poor, with financial services the primary culprit, something that also afflicts migrants sending money home (see article). Mr Martin at least has a bank account. Some 8% of American households—and nearly one in three whose income is less than $15,000 a year—do not (see chart). More than half of this group say banking is too expensive for them. Many cannot maintain the minimum balance necessary to avoid monthly fees; for others, the risk of being walloped with unexpected fees looms too large.

Increasing popularity of prepaid business models

The GSMA expects the North American prepaid market to grow to 31% by 2020 and its hovering around 29% at this time. This is just over double the proportion of prepaid vs postpaid subscribers in the past 5 years.

In fact, US telcos like Sprint have recently announced their intent to drop the 2 year contract business model, offering smartphones on lease just like competitors Verizon and T-Mobile. And phone maker Apple has gone as far as to offer their own rent to own program, one which resembles SUV leasing arrangments with a new model every year.

Screenshot-2015-09-10-10.02.44-600x283This is an interesting trend as it points to the reluctance of consumers to commit to 2 years of unexpected bills at the end of the month, preferring the certainty that prepaid offers over your spending. Concurrently, there’s been a noticeable rise in prepaid credit cards and other similar facilities.

As of 2012, roughly 12 million Americans used a prepaid card at least once a month and we collectively loaded $65 billion to them – double the amount loaded just three years prior. That figure is expected to rise to $337.8 billion by 2017, according to Mercator Advisory Group – an increase of 420%.

The prepaid business model empowers customers by putting control over timing – frequency & periodicity, as well as amounts spent, in their hands. Flexibility to manage one’s expenses, against incomes, is another aspect that’s attractive about this business model. Companies love it too as cash flows accrue in advance, minimizing the risks of defaults.

Consumer income streams are changing in America

Do these trends reflect the changing patterns of cash flow among consumers, as indicated by the rise of such revenue generators as Uber, AirBnB and others of their ilk?

Irregular and unpredictable income streams are part and parcel of the independent worker, regardless of label, as they are not guaranteed a known amount in the form of a salary arriving on a predictable calender schedule.

This app offering to help you manage uncertainty seems to imply so.

Purchasing Patterns in Cash Based Markets and Informal Economy

When cash flow is irregular and not always unpredictable, both in amount and frequency, such as it is for the majority earning a living in the informal economy, buyer behavior is not quite the same as for mainstream consumers with access to credit cards and regular paychecks.

I’ve quite often made reference to how operating primarily in cash money influences purchasing patterns. Here, I cluster the patterns observed into 4 categories, based on a combination of need and money available.

prepaid-electricity-units-in-ho-ghana-1

Source: http://www.hobotraveler.com/electricity/prepaid-electricity-units-in-ho-ghana.php

1. Paid for in advance – Usually a service that can be utilized or consumed over time can be purchased in advance when funds are available and then made to last as long as possible. The best known example of course is prepaid airtime – voice, text and data for mobile phones. Consumers on limited budgets then seek coping mechanisms to extend the “life” of the service purchased.

FOURfridge

Source: Niti Bhan, South Africa January 2008

An example is this refrigerator powered by LPG available in rural South Africa. It helps conserve the electricity consumption (South Africa was the first to install prepaid electricity meters) and is a parallel investment in ‘prepaid’ energy – the LPG cylinder.

DSC01550

Source: Niti Bhan, South Africa, January 2008

2. Bought in bulk – Usually food staples or something you cannot live without would be purchased in this manner, either when there is a sudden influx of cash or a payment at the end of manual labour, or, if managing on a fixed amount each month such as remittances from abroad. This ensures that there is something to eat even if money runs out before the next payment might be due. If it’s a sudden influx of cash for someone not on a pension or remittance, then this lumpsum is also the source of funds that may go towards a consumer durable purchase or big ticket item of some kind. In rural economies, the harvest season is major shopping time and boost to local commerce.

Freshly shredded cabbage (Photo Credit: Niti Bhan)

Source: Niti Bhan, rural Kenya, February 2012

 3. On demand or daily purchase – mostly perishables like bread, eggs, fresh vegetables purchased for the day’s needs. Partly cultural but also influenced by availability of cash in hand. Cigarettes sold loose or two slices of bread and an egg are some examples we’ve seen. Indian vegetable vendors are also willing to sell you a small portion of a larger vegetable either by weight or by price. You can buy 50p worth of cabbage for a single meal. Mama Mboga in Kenya will even shred it for you. Minimizes wastage whether you’re cooking for one or have no fridge.

This is also the most common pattern if you earn small amounts daily, like the vegetable vendor, shelling out what you have for what you need and then if there’s some change, debating what do with it.

DSC05007

Source: Niti Bhan, The Philippines, January 2009

4. Single use portions – A form of on demand purchase. Interestingly, I came across this working paper by Anand Kumar Jaiswal at IIM, saying that sales results in rural India seemed to imply that only shampoos and razor blades were more successful in sachet form, whereas things like milkpowder, jam etc sold more in the larger size.

DSC01736

Source: Niti Bhan South Africa January 2008

The author cautions against assuming all sachets will sell. I believe it could be based on the usage pattern of the product in question or its nature – what if you packaged a perishable item in single servings that didn’t need refrigeration until opened? Formal packaging in sachets – the kadogo economy – emerged from existing behaviour in informal retail. Breaking bulk down into smaller portions is popular across the developing world’s informal markets.

Single meal portions of vegetables, Cabatuan market, Iloilo February 2009

Single meal portions of vegetables, Cabatuan market, Iloilo February 2009 Photo: Niti Bhan

This shopkeeper in The Philippines has gone a step further to offer you the convenience of purchasing all the vegetables you need for stew – carrots, beans, cabbage – without the financial burden of having to purchase the entire cabbage or carrot. Its a combination of the single use packaging (not quite a sachet) and the on demand purchase of what’s immediately required or affordable. The Philippines has some of the most creative variations of the kadogo or sachet economy that I’ve seen in informal retail.

Business Models for the Informal Economy

You can see the roots of the many variations on business models in these purchasing patterns. As people told me over and over during a project on household solar in East Africa, it wasn’t the price of the product that was the problem but the payment plan which didn’t fit with their existing behaviour. Both must be designed to meet the needs of your intended target audience.

Contact me if you need insights on consumer behaviour, household energy consumption behaviour and financial management behaviour in the rural and informal markets of the developing world. Note, this is not a free offer.

 

Source: These insights are drawn from patterns of behaviour observed among consumers in cash based and informal markets in South Africa, The Philippines, India, Kenya, Rwanda and Malawi. Primary research led and conducted by Niti Bhan. Citation.

Why the Search for the Middle Class is a Waste of Time and Money

CJamzx5WsAANOgfOnce we stop focusing only on the search for the mythical middle class, we see the very real changes that have taken place, globally, over the past 25 years. The Pew Report in the previous post focused primarily on the middle income/middle class, overlooking in their haste that even this segment of the world’s population had almost doubled from 7% to 13%. Their rationale is based on conventional thinking which frames the importance of this middle income demographic so:

Developing a vast middle class is key to sustaining growth in emerging economies, whose comparative advantage in offering advanced markets products at a fraction of the cost is waning with new technologies.

Just a couple of days before this Pew report, the United Nations released an important global development report. Here, we can see the real changes that have taken place in historically poverty stricken populations like India’s and China’s:

More than a billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty since 1990 with China and India playing a central role in global poverty reduction, a major UN report has said

The latest estimates show that the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day globally fell from 36 per cent in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 12 per cent, as of 2015.

The poverty rate in the developing regions has plummeted, from 47 per cent in 1990 to 14 per cent in 2015, a drop of more than two thirds.

“The world’s most populous countries, China and India, played a central role in the global reduction of poverty. As a result of progress in China, the extreme poverty rate in Eastern Asia has dropped from 61 per cent in 1990 to only 4 per cent in 2015,” the report said.

“Southern Asia’s progress is almost as impressive — a decline from 52 per cent to 17 per cent for the same period — and its rate of reduction has accelerated since 2008,” it said.

Who cares about the middle class and their mythical relationship to economic growth and progress when the data shows that poverty has been halved, and a billion people can dream of hope. If this middle class were genuinely related to economic growth then we wouldn’t be seeing these conflicting headlines. From the same article that touts the need for a middle middle as critical to growth, already linked above, and referencing the Pew Research report.

India’s middle class barely expanded during the decade, increasing from 1 per cent of the population in 2001 to 3 per cent in 2011, an increase the study called ”small by any measure.”

While the Indian economy is currently said to be so:

India is seeing “stable growth momentum” even as economic activities are expected to slow down in China, the US and many other major economies, says Paris-based think tank OECD.

Last month, OECD — a grouping of 34 countries — had pegged India’s growth to remain “strong and stable” at 7.3 per cent in 2015 on the back of revival in investments.

India has surpassed China to become the world’s fastest growing economy by clocking 7.5 per cent growth for the three months ended March. In 2014-15, the economy had expanded 7.3 per cent.

Earlier this month, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the country is no longer satisfied being in the 6 to 8 per cent growth.

“It wants to transcend to another level and aim for 8 to 10 per cent growth… We wish to grow faster because we have a huge challenge of eradicating poverty ahead of us,” he had said.

Given the imperative to push hundreds of millions above the poverty line – far more important to a developing country like India, a historically poverty stricken country – worrying about the mythical middle class is the least of the government’s problems. India’s NREGA is the world’s largest public works programme, benefiting 182 million human beings, only 15% of the country’s population.

This begs the question: “Is growing a vast middle class really key to sustainable growth?

India didn’t grow one (sounds rather like a beard, doesn’t it?) as large as or as fast as China, yet India’s economic indicators seem to be healthier and its population emerging out of abject poverty.

One wonders whether the continued emphasis and focus on chasing the middle class dream not only blinds us to the very real social and economic developments taking place but also whether its a corporate imperative rather than a societal one?

In the long run, will more noodles and biscuits matter, or the fact that more girls are going to school, studying computers and English?

This same single minded search for a middle class is creating its own set of repercussions on the African continent. One gets the feeling there’s a bunch of folks wandering around dazed and confused, groping and grasping blindly for something called “middle class”. Again, overlooked in this game of blind man’s buff are data points like Kenya’s recent emergence as a lower middle income country – the World Bank upgraded it from low income last month:

“Our latest data show that in terms of this indicator, the world’s economic geography has changed a lot. In 1994, 56.1% of the world’s population – 3.1 billion people – lived in the 64 low-income countries. In 2014, this was down to 8.5%, or 613 million people, living in 31 countries. It is heartening to see that over the last one year itself four nations crossed over that critical line from the low-income to the lower-middle income category.”

But, no, lets go chasing the mythical middle instead. On paper, and in the numerous reports churned out by management consultancies, they might be easiest demographic to sell consumer goods to, but as I’d asked 8 years ago, is the holy grail of economic development only the creation of a consumer society? And, is it something that can be realistically aimed for, given the rapidly dwindling natural resources of our planet?

Global tipping point in development

Two years ago, I’d written the following words:

Finally, enough people in enough places have managed to lift themselves free of the gravity well sucking them down into completely insecure and uncertain relationship with the poverty line (aka the next meal or three for the entire family) that they can plan ahead for the next purchase or investment in their future economic status and social standing. One is not independent of the other, especially not in the closely knit, hyper local social networks in rural regions of the developing world.

What we’re in fact seeing are the metrics that demonstrate that tipping point I’d sensed a couple of years ago, while wandering around rural Kenya.

People, not consumers, are bootstrapping themselves out of poverty and feeling steady enough to make a leap for the brass ring of prosperity. The shift is so huge – 700 million people or 10% of the planet’s population – that we’ll be seeing the impact and influence of this emerge over the near term emerging future.

They’ll be neither the Bottom of any Pyramid nor the Middle Class – both measures use metrics too obsolete to account for the leapfrogging taking place in the eternally developing world. What they won’t be is stagnant, or satisfied with their achievements. Pew might say they haven’t come far enough, but who is to say that’s their own metric of success?

Floating Upwards: The Bottom of the Pyramid Segment is No More

Pew Research Center’s latest results on global income distribution show some rather large shifts among the lowest income segments.

PG-2015-07-08_globalClass-00The Bottom of the Pyramid or Base of the Pyramid (BoP) segment, defined as those who live on less than $2.50/day has just lost a significant percentage of the population. While one can quibble that $2.50 is greater than $2.01 and thus they are still there in the low income segment, you’ll recall that the BoP segment was originally $2/day in its heyday, estimated to be 4 billion strong in the old days.

130108-Africa-02

The low income segment, as defined by Pew, ranges from $2.01 to $10 a day, which overlaps with the African Development Bank’s ‘floating class’ and the ‘lower middle’ class. Lets look at the ‘floating class’ so as to cover all bases when it comes to the income range of people whose cash flows are irregular and unpredictable. One day might be only $2 but the next could be $10. This daily amount, it floats.

From the Pew report:

This study divides the population in each country into five groups based on a family’s daily per capita consumption or income.3 The five groups are labeled poor, low income, middle income, upper-middle income, and high income. Of the four thresholds that separate these different income groups, two are especially important to keep in mind. The first is $2, the minimum daily per capita income that must be exceeded to exit poverty.4 The second is $10, the threshold that must be crossed to attain middle-income status. The thresholds are expressed in 2011 prices and 2011 purchasing power parities.

PG-2015-07-08_globalClass-02

700 million people exited poverty.

They’re not rich yet nor middle income, but their upward mobility and emergence is undeniable, and their consumption is increasingly visible. They are part of the reason why African statistics on the middle class market are so volatile. Obvious and visible consumption is taking place yet few fit the traditional description of what an emerging middle class segment should look like.

Aspirations change even one rung up the ladder

Income is not the only reason for my confidence in making the claim that the era of the Bottom of the Pyramid, the BoP, is over. Along with the few more shillings or rupees a day, comes a shift in mindset. Suddenly, from worrying non-stop about the next meal, we’re thinking about the possibility of investing in a motorcycle, or a cow. Sending the smart one to high school or taking computer classes.

Some old habits remain as the need for frugal buyer behaviour hasn’t changed with a few more dollars a day, and we’ll still see purchasing patterns influenced by cash flows and informal retail. But the dreams have grown and changed.

Once this happens, even if there might be dips in cash flow, one’s  worldview is very different from those who are still struggling to survive. We learn to make do if there’s a tight patch, but we don’t go back to living like “the poor”. And it is this transformation that has broken the back of the BoP forever.

Your product or service for the BoP might now be too small for their newly expanded hopes and dreams and ambitions.

 

Related post predicting this moment from 2013

“Cheap is expensive.”

Kitchenware stall at open air market outside Kibera, Nairobi Kenya 23 Jan 2012

Kitchenware stall at open air market outside Kibera, Nairobi Kenya 23 Jan 2012

Mama said something very profound when I asked her which of those kerosene stoves she would purchase for herself,

“Cheap is expensive,” she said, making a moue at the low cost imports jostling for space in her kitchengoods shop on the outskirts of Kibra.

While the limitations of cash in hand may drive her customer’s choices, they know full well the trade off they are making when they choose a less sturdy, possibly unreliable product that they can immediately afford over a better quality though higher priced one.

Loyalty cards to incentivitize vaccinations – service innovation from Kenya

Dr Benson Wamalwa displays the bar-coded vaccination card that tracks vaccinations and rewards mothers with discounts on farm products. PHOTO | DIANA NGILA

Dr Benson Wamalwa displays the bar-coded vaccination card that tracks vaccinations and rewards mothers with discounts on farm products. PHOTO | DIANA NGILA

We most commonly tend to associate loyalty cards with grocery shopping at our local supermarket chain – swiping the card for the occasional discount on milk or eggs.

Now this same concept is being used in an entirely different context in order to lower the barriers for rural Kenyan mums to invest in the time and effort required to vaccinate their babies.

From the rural economic perspective, Dr Wamalwa seems to have hit the nail on the head with identifying the pain points – that is, the actionable insights we seek from qualitative research among the target audience that helps inform and inspire the design of a new service or business model.

Dr Wamalwa noted that mothers are prudent with the way they use their resources— be it finances or time. He said majority of women come from low income settings where every shilling counts.

“A mother will therefore find it a waste of time to leave her part-time job and go to a clinic far away, then have no money for buying food to feed her family in the evening,” he told Digital Business.

The main goal of the innovation is to make mothers view vaccination as something worthwhile.

We wanted them to feel that they can gain something by taking their children to hospitals for all recommended immunisations.”

This digital innovation, whose pilot phase was funded by a Sh9 million ($100,000) seed grant from Canada, increased the uptake of vaccination services from 55 per cent to 95 per cent in Bungoma and TransNzoia counties where it was piloted and is still being used up to date.