Posts Tagged ‘informal retail’

Snapshot of the Dynamics of the Urban Informal Retail Trade in Nairobi, Kenya

Informal Economy Dynamics - Updated

Made by Latiff Cherono – click for larger image

Latiff Cherono quickly made up this diagram during a brainstorming session with Francis Hook and myself on the ways and means to further disaggregate the general category of “Informal wholesale and retail trade” that the Kenya National Statistics Board uses to lump together the second largest sector providing employment in Kenya after agriculture.

jobs2 In urban conditions, vending and hawking of this sort is the largest source of income for the formally unemployed.

As you can see in the map visualizing Latiff’s analysis of a well known location for street vendors and hawkers to operate breaks down traffic flows not only by speed but also takes in account both static and dynamic forms of informal trade.

It may look chaotic but there are principles underlying the decisions made by both pavement vendors and mobile vendors (streethawkers in traffic) for their location of choice. These relate to the speed of passersby and potential customers – both wheeled and heeled, as Francis is wont to say – and closer analysis will most likely provide evidence of attempt to drive more footfalls to the shopfront, so to speak.

An example is the way pavement vendors locate themselves on either side of the busy bus stops, while mobile vendors who vend their way through traffic focus on the bottlenecks created by the roundabout and the traffic police.

We’re still in early days yet but time and money seem to be two of the factors that describe the attributes to segment and categorize the informal retail sector in urban Africa.

Implicit Assumptions commonly held about Informal Markets

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Woman owned and managed informal retail in Mozambique via Twitter

  1. “Informal Economy” always means illegal, shadowy, gray.
  2. High volume of low value cash transactions imply poverty, ignorance, lack of sophisticated money management.
  3. Operating with a lack of infrastructure and institutions implies ignorance, lack of ambitions and aspirations, and motivation.
  4. Lack of cash implies lack of purchasing power – particularly in rural settings.
  5. Lack of formal retail markets and packaged consumer goods implies lack of knowledge, information, and choices.
  6. Lack of competition, due to all of the above.
  7. Entering markets where informal retail dominates will be a cakewalk.

Research Question: Why is the informal retail sector so persistent and resilient?

retail2Retailing in India is currently estimated to be a USD 200 billion industry, of which organised retailing makes up 3% or USD 6.4 billion. By 2010, organized retail is projected to reach USD 23 billion and in terms of market share it is expected to rise by 20 to 25%. (Sinha et all, 2007)

These claims of projected growth were made based on a 2005 KPMG report on the Indian Consumer market, while the chart itself with it’s aspirational forecast is from the IBEF website. I have been watching and waiting for more than ten years for India’s retail revolution to take place.

The consistent message from the beginning of the retail boom has been that since the organized retail sector (what we would call the formal) has only been ~2% of the total retail trade in India (the balance is informal retail) there was ample opportunity for growth in modern retail.

Yet if you look at the data from 2015, you’ll see that the forecasts were far too ambitious (or, perhaps, aspirational, in the push for modernization driving India’s recently opened markets) – formal retail has only reached 8% penetration in the past 10 years. Nowhere close to the 25% expected by 2010. Mind you, these were all the management consultancy reports bandying the numbers around.

I bring this up because I’m seeing the same kinds of projections happening right now for the African consumer market by the very same firms. And with very few exceptions, the majority of the SSA markets tend towards the same kind of proportions of organized vs unorganized retail  (formal vs informal, modern vs traditional et al are all variations on this theme with minor differences in definition).

And, even as the retail real estate development investments are booming, we are already seeing the very first signs of the same challenge that India faced – over capacity, low footfalls, and empty malls. Just yesterday, the news from Ghana – a firm favourite of the investment forecasters –  has this to say:

Ghana’s economic woes have translated into a variety of challenges for formal retailers who are competing for sales alongsidethe dominant and deep-rooted informal shopping sector. According to a recent report by African commercial property services group Broll – titled Ghana, Retail Barometer Q2, 2016 – overall sales in most modern shopping malls are well below historic averages, despite garnering sufficient foot traffic.
[…]
“International players are also looking at the market and re-adjusting their product/pricing mix to cater for the real middle class, whereby we are talking more in terms of value products rather than high-end products.”

And, retail developers are turning their attention to secondary cities such as Kumasi and Takoradi, as Accra reaches saturation point. The exact same pattern as we have been seeing in India. You would think people might pause a moment to take a look at similar markets and operating environments to assess patterns of market creation development.

This pattern is what gave rise to the research question I would like to frame – why has the informal retail sector been so persistent and resilient? What does this mean for modern trade? And, what are the implications for urban development and planning?

The trajectories of the Indian and the Ghanaian economies have taken different turns, thus, while one might point to these factors as the reasons for the challenges facing the mall owners and the retail brands, the big picture over the past twenty years points to something more fundamental in these operating environments common to the developing world.

That is what I would like to find out.

Japan’s Indian Strategy for the African Consumer Market

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One of the most high-profile events Kenya has hosted since independence begins this week when heads of state from across Africa and the Prime Minister of Japan Mr Shinzo Abe jet in for the Tokyo International Conference on Africa Development (TICAD). It will be the first time that Ticad has been held outside Japan and it is an honour to Kenya to have been picked to host this event. ~ Daily Nation editorial

The Nikkei Asian Review has been preparing for days with longform articles on the African consumer market, and other opportunities for Asian businesses. While Indian B2C investments have been closely analysed (and embraced), it is clear that the East Asians are eyeing each other as their closest competitors.

Africa was once dominated by Western investors, due to ties forged in colonial times. But Chinese companies have muscled their way in, and Indian, Japanese and South Korean players are arriving and thriving. This intense competition is no longer just about extracting minerals and materials. It is about tapping the next big consumer market.

Their articles are well researched and provide ample insights for businesses contemplating these new markets. Here are some highlights that caught my eye:

Vivek Karve has a clear picture of the ideal African market. The chief financial officer of India’s Marico, a maker of hair and body care products and other fast-moving consumer goods, said his company targets countries with “per capita GDP under $5,000, many mom-and-pop shops, low penetration of multinationals and political stability.”

There’s little handwringing over lack of data or missing middle class metrics. Inadequate infrastructure and informal retail in Africa is no different for your average Indian FMCG brand than their domestic market, thus the concept of the ideal market being one full of little mom and pop shops.

Marico’s strategy for achieving that includes promoting local brands familiar to African consumers, rather than pushing products that are popular in India. It uses multiple distributors to cushion itself against credit risks.

The Japanese, having already faced off with the Koreans in India’s large, diverse, and fragmented markets, are ready to take a leaf from the Indian playbook for their foray into the African market.

The gap between Asian and Western rivals is expected to narrow over time, with China making up much of the ground. About 3,000 companies from China — Africa’s largest trade partner since 2009 — are doing business in sectors such as infrastructure, resource development and telecommunications.

And even this focus on infrastructure development and large scale investments is changing. The Chinese idea is to boost purchasing power across Africa and turn the continent into a massive consumer market.

csm_Dr.Morimoto_and_Mr.Okabayashi_01_c364aafd49

Nissin Foods launched locally sourced sorghum noodles in Nyama Choma flavour in Kenya

The Japanese are preparing the ground to apply their own strengths in Africa. Japanese companies see Africa as a lucrative but daunting challenge — one they would rather tackle with a partner or subsidiary that is familiar with emerging markets.

This, again, is where India comes in. Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Nissin Foods Holdings and Hitachi all export from their factories in India to Africa. The Japanese government is actively working to help companies make inroads in India as a springboard to Africa.

A couple of years ago, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry compiled a list of potential Indian partner companies with strong African operations in 16 fields, including beverages, consumer goods, retail, electronic parts and auto components. Godrej Group and Marico were among them.

The lessons of the last quarter century are driving a new collaborative strategy. My rupees and yen are on Asia.

The hidden cost of doing business #informaleconomy

household shop

Kenya, 2nd Feb 2016. Photo Credit: Emerging Futures Lab

This looks like its a low cost business operation with low barriers to entry. All you need to do is find a decent tree under which to display your wares.

The reality is that these entrepreneurs have numerous fees and costs that they must pay in order to do business, regardless of how informal it all looks. They pay rent for that space on market day, they pay the council in order to transport their wares, they need to pay for transportation, and any assistance they might need for loading and unloading, they even need to pay the various formal and informal “tax” collectors on the road to this market town.

There is a cost to doing business, and there’s uncertainty of income and cash flow. Some of these fees might be fixed or known, but some, like the amounts asked for, along the way, might be dependent on the mood of the officer, or even, the weather.

On the other hand, these fees and taxes and payments ensure that the retailer has a decent location in the market, that they won’t be harassed or chased away during working hours, and that the “system” – chaotic though it might seem to our eyes – will serve their needs.

If you were ask them what they think of this, they would shrug their shoulders and tell you its just the cost of doing business.

What marketing 101 can teach development practitioners and academics

The entire universe of people with an unmet need that you expect your solution to fulfill is not your target audience.

The fundamentals of market analysis include the basic calculations that allow marketing managers of all stripes to calculate (guesstimate) their potential market size, and thus a realistic assessment of its value. That is their marketing universe, within which they will set targets for the acquisition of customers. That potential customer base is the targetted audience for their marketing efforts, in order to get them onto the customer journey ladder to “loyal advocates” your brand or service.

This simple yet powerful understanding is known even to Ghana’s market queens, the ladies who trade. They don’t imagine that they can serve the 100 million people without tomatoes that day. Yet these are the kinds of grand targets that development, and its little cousin once removed, social enterprises announce day in and day out in press releases.

I was lucky. Yepeka Yeebo reached out to me before a trip to Accra, where she had been commissioned to write a profile of such an entrepreneur.She has permitted me to use her photographs and to write this story of Auntie Matilda, the tomato trader of Accra, Ghana.

Yeebo_Market_01The market mummies, the market queens – the informal retail sector across most of West Africa is dominated by women. Women inherit their mother’s social and commercial networks, the goodwill of her mother’s trading relationships and thus, her social capital and repute. As Yeppi writes, there was a time when the intricate webs of economic power wielded by these ladies took the full might of the Ghanaian army to dismantle.

Gerry van Dyke has studied the customer experience design strategies the ladies use to distinguish themselves, though selling the exact same unbranded commidity. Even Unilever comes to learn at their feet, and Maggi Cubes know they can’t win if the mummies are unhappy at the margins for breaking bulk of one of those long boxes we all have at home.

Yeebo_Market_08

Break bulk is visible across the developing world’s informal economies. Just like the prepaid business model, the irregular income streams of the vast majority of the informal sector, even those who would the upper middle class of their milieu, mean that wherever one can negotiate some flexibility of time and money, their business is assured. It is a mark of trust to be able to agree to accept a payment over time.

This extends then to the way the products are sold. There is no concept of discounting for bulk purchase, simply because you’re unlikely to sink  your daily working capital into a huge bag of toilet paper. Liquidity is the real king, cash is only the manifestation in the real world. Flexibility is one of the ways to mitigate the risk of uncertainty that small business owners face daily.

Auntie Matilda’s business choices, marketing and customer development strategies, and the health of her cash flow, all depend upon her ability to build a network of working relationships predicated on trust, references, and thus, proof of performance. One wonders if the only reason she might not be formal is that there isn’t any particular segment or category in the current forms of registered businesses that apply to her kind of business.

Its time we overturned the ivory tower’s disdain of filthy lucre and trade in the city center and gave these ladies their due.

Purchasing Patterns in Cash Based Markets and Informal Economy

When cash flow is irregular and not always unpredictable, both in amount and frequency, such as it is for the majority earning a living in the informal economy, buyer behavior is not quite the same as for mainstream consumers with access to credit cards and regular paychecks.

I’ve quite often made reference to how operating primarily in cash money influences purchasing patterns. Here, I cluster the patterns observed into 4 categories, based on a combination of need and money available.

prepaid-electricity-units-in-ho-ghana-1

Source: http://www.hobotraveler.com/electricity/prepaid-electricity-units-in-ho-ghana.php

1. Paid for in advance – Usually a service that can be utilized or consumed over time can be purchased in advance when funds are available and then made to last as long as possible. The best known example of course is prepaid airtime – voice, text and data for mobile phones. Consumers on limited budgets then seek coping mechanisms to extend the “life” of the service purchased.

FOURfridge

Source: Niti Bhan, South Africa January 2008

An example is this refrigerator powered by LPG available in rural South Africa. It helps conserve the electricity consumption (South Africa was the first to install prepaid electricity meters) and is a parallel investment in ‘prepaid’ energy – the LPG cylinder.

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Source: Niti Bhan, South Africa, January 2008

2. Bought in bulk – Usually food staples or something you cannot live without would be purchased in this manner, either when there is a sudden influx of cash or a payment at the end of manual labour, or, if managing on a fixed amount each month such as remittances from abroad. This ensures that there is something to eat even if money runs out before the next payment might be due. If it’s a sudden influx of cash for someone not on a pension or remittance, then this lumpsum is also the source of funds that may go towards a consumer durable purchase or big ticket item of some kind. In rural economies, the harvest season is major shopping time and boost to local commerce.

Freshly shredded cabbage (Photo Credit: Niti Bhan)

Source: Niti Bhan, rural Kenya, February 2012

 3. On demand or daily purchase – mostly perishables like bread, eggs, fresh vegetables purchased for the day’s needs. Partly cultural but also influenced by availability of cash in hand. Cigarettes sold loose or two slices of bread and an egg are some examples we’ve seen. Indian vegetable vendors are also willing to sell you a small portion of a larger vegetable either by weight or by price. You can buy 50p worth of cabbage for a single meal. Mama Mboga in Kenya will even shred it for you. Minimizes wastage whether you’re cooking for one or have no fridge.

This is also the most common pattern if you earn small amounts daily, like the vegetable vendor, shelling out what you have for what you need and then if there’s some change, debating what do with it.

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Source: Niti Bhan, The Philippines, January 2009

4. Single use portions – A form of on demand purchase. Interestingly, I came across this working paper by Anand Kumar Jaiswal at IIM, saying that sales results in rural India seemed to imply that only shampoos and razor blades were more successful in sachet form, whereas things like milkpowder, jam etc sold more in the larger size.

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Source: Niti Bhan South Africa January 2008

The author cautions against assuming all sachets will sell. I believe it could be based on the usage pattern of the product in question or its nature – what if you packaged a perishable item in single servings that didn’t need refrigeration until opened? Formal packaging in sachets – the kadogo economy – emerged from existing behaviour in informal retail. Breaking bulk down into smaller portions is popular across the developing world’s informal markets.

Single meal portions of vegetables, Cabatuan market, Iloilo February 2009

Single meal portions of vegetables, Cabatuan market, Iloilo February 2009 Photo: Niti Bhan

This shopkeeper in The Philippines has gone a step further to offer you the convenience of purchasing all the vegetables you need for stew – carrots, beans, cabbage – without the financial burden of having to purchase the entire cabbage or carrot. Its a combination of the single use packaging (not quite a sachet) and the on demand purchase of what’s immediately required or affordable. The Philippines has some of the most creative variations of the kadogo or sachet economy that I’ve seen in informal retail.

Business Models for the Informal Economy

You can see the roots of the many variations on business models in these purchasing patterns. As people told me over and over during a project on household solar in East Africa, it wasn’t the price of the product that was the problem but the payment plan which didn’t fit with their existing behaviour. Both must be designed to meet the needs of your intended target audience.

Contact me if you need insights on consumer behaviour, household energy consumption behaviour and financial management behaviour in the rural and informal markets of the developing world. Note, this is not a free offer.

 

Source: These insights are drawn from patterns of behaviour observed among consumers in cash based and informal markets in South Africa, The Philippines, India, Kenya, Rwanda and Malawi. Primary research led and conducted by Niti Bhan. Citation.

Breaking bulk and profiting at the margins

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Photo Credit: Michael Kimani

Michael sent me this information from Nairobi last week. He’d spotted informal retail within the context of a mini-supermarket – known as traditional trade in the jargon of consumer product distribution and retail. He adds,

“So 500 ml of Rina cooking oil retails for 120KES, 1 litre for 195 KES. What the owner of this store found out is buying a 20 litre (which she retails for 2700 KES) and repackaging it into 1 litre  plastic bags in red basket), is more profitable according to attendant doing this – Each bag retails for 135 KES”

Quick math informs us that she’s not giving her customers an out – the retail price for the 20 litre jerry can works out to 135 KES per litre. On the other hand, purchasing an informally packaged plastic bag over the formal product packaging offers you savings of 60 KES and helps stretch the grocery budget a little more.

A search online shows me an e-tail website whose prices for Rina are even higher – 500 ml at 121 KES, 1 litre at 214 KES and the 20 litre at 3,300 KES.

This behaviour isn’t just seen in Kenya or the African continent – I’ve documented it in The Philippines, and in rural India.  Its the natural outcome of the purchasing patterns influenced by cash transactions and irregular incomes – of the retailer as well as their customers.

Without contextual knowledge of the operating environment of the vast majority of trade and services in the informal sector, implicit assumptions left unquestioned pose their own barriers to sustainable growth.

For Mama Biashara, it’s these margins that provide a little wriggle room for profit, while offering some added value to her customers.

Introducing Mama Biashara

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) released a women’s report with some eye opening figures.

B7zTsSOIcAAA4ykSimply put, African women lead the world in being their own boss.

Mama Biashara’s business activities may perhaps be more driven by livelihood need and few alternatives but she’s not sitting around looking for a handout either. Pillar of the informal markets that supply fresh food and the solid rock that keeps homesteads running, children fed and schooled, Mama Biashara is an archetype of the informal economy that contributes so much to the national GDPs yet goes unremarked.

Under a new category “Mama Biashara“, we would like to celebrate the endurance, the survival and the commitment that these Mamas, Nanas and Mummies demonstrate every single day, across the continent. Add it to your RSS feed or bookmark it, as we’ll be filling the pipe with more stories about her as we go on.

Traveling on the New Silk Route with African traders to the Far East

The 21st century’s version of the old Silk Road that led caravans of traders from around the world to China and back is the flight path between the African continent and China. Bangkok Airport is one of these new oasis for caravaneers on the New Silk Route, where I caught the Kenyan Airways flight on its stopover between Guangzhou and Nairobi.

Sitting next to me were entrepreneurs – the lady from Kigali returning after deal making in electronics and new clothes and the Congolese traders from Brazzaville exuberantly enjoying their after dinner cognacs, all chattering away in French.

The Ancient Silk Route

It was the onboard announcement made just prior to landing in Nairobi that made me realize what I had just experienced – connecting flights out of Nairobi reached across the Sub Saharan landscape from Accra to Kigali, Harare to Lubumbashi – exotic names in distant places, yet gathered under one roof, if only for a short moment in time.

How different was this from caravanserais of yore as the mishmash of “small small English” mingled with la langue francais et every mother’s tongue? Kenya Airways had Thai stewardesses and I heard each safety instruction being repeated in fluent Mandarin, Gujerati and Swahili as well.

Only the technology and the means of transportation and communication have changed, the bazaar is still the marketplace for exchange of goods and services as it has always been.

Until now I’d only read about increasing trade between these two far flung places, the majority of which emerging from the so called informal economy or Neuwirth’s systeme D. But this short immersion in the energy flow in between underlined the reality and scale of what was happening. The flight was full and there were few getting on in Bangkok, the vast majority of passengers returning to their various destinations after their short sojourns in Guangzhou.

 The other flights out of Bangkok – to Brisbane or London – were full of holidaymakers but not this flight unless one counted the group of young Koreans going on a volunteer trip with an NGO.  Perhaps its time the old Silk Road map was updated with current day flight paths in bright purple.

Here’s a short snippet from an article article translated from the Japanese on the unique model of globalization displayed by “Little Africa” in southern China that gives us a glimpse of the tremendous changes connectivity and communication are making to commerce:

 Including undocumented immigrants, it is estimated that there are an astounding 150,000 Africans in Guangzhou, a majority of them male. It should come as no surprise then that among Guangzhou’s foreign residents, those from Africa make up the largest proportion. These immigrants essentially operate on an individual basis. Working in China as buyers, they can be seen determinedly ranging the streets of central Guangzhou’s wholesale district. There are variations in density, but among the passersby on some bustling streets, half will have African features.

There are those from East Africa and West Africa, of all kinds of builds from all different countries. They come to stock up on goods ranging from clothes to cosmetics and sundries, even fake brands – probably collected from factories forced to compete with prices in the Guangzhou region – seeking out deals for everything. Gathering together enough to fill a shipping container, they send these miscellanies home and then flip them for twice the cost, with Guangzhou’s customs duty apparently accommodating such motley trade.
[…]
The individual buyers are supervised by North African or Middle Eastern controllers, and when night comes they gather at restaurants to carry out microloan-style finance meetings.
[…]
There are restaurants serving cuisine from the Congo and Nigeria, stalls with cheap telephone rates to Africa, mobile phone brokers, specialty barbers, vendors hawking cassettes and CDs of African music, and in some buildings that have been completely occupied by African tenants, the rare African-run intermediary wholesaler doing order-made customization.