Seasonality as an element of contextual planning for emerging consumer markets

Growing up as a Hindu expat in multicultural ‘West Malaysia’ of the 1970s and 80s, it was a matter of course that every festival would be a big occasion. We had Christmas in December, and Chinese New Year soon after, to be followed by Hari Raya (Eid) and Deepawali – each of them deserving of TV specials and decorations on the streets.

Seasonality of cash flows and income streams in the informal and rural economy translated in the urban areas as festivals triggered a boom in consumer sales. India’s formal economy still keeps watch on the onset of the annual monsoons, as those rains will have documented impact on their 3rd quarter sales in the peak festival season of October and November, leading into the wedding season.

In Eastern Africa, this seasonality is seen, among other things, in the lives of pastoralists and livestock farmers. As Eid Al Adhar approaches in a few days, livestock sales for the annual sacrifice are reaching their peak. Trade in meat is one of the staple income sources in the arid lands and the Port of Mombasa is one of the keys to the distribution networks.

The livestock trade to the Middle East accounts for 60 percent of Somaliland’s gross domestic product and 70 percent of its jobs.

This, however, is changing, as the Port of Berbera will soon receive millions of dollars of investment in improved infrastructure. The element of seasonal cycles over the course of the natural year, however, will not change. And this is worth noting for those considering the emerging consumer markets in the developing world.

Beyond word of mouth, however, it is hard to get a proper idea about the economic impact of Ramadan. Perhaps because of sensitivities around dealing with a religious institution, international organisations such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and United Nations Development Programme have not conducted research on the precise economic impact of the custom.

FMCG majors already feeling the pinch of shrinking domestic markets are finally taking note of this entire opportunity space. In Indonesia, Unilever, Beiersdorf and L’Oreal are making halal face creams and shampoos to court Muslims as sales in Western markets taper off.

There are patterns of trade around major holidays in each region, be it Chinese New Year or Dussehra, and the informal sector prepares for, and relies upon, these expected bumper ‘harvests’ in their cash flow. It will be interesting to watch what happens in the context of the African consumer market as the Asian giants begin to eye it seriously as the last frontier for significant growth.

Why prepaid business models work so well for the rural and informal economy

We broke down the basic concept of the ‘pay as you go’ or prepaid mobile plan – in general, discounting the details of the various different strategies and pricing/time plans of different countries as a way to begin understanding what is it about this model that makes it work at the BoP.

Could we somehow find a general principle that could then be applied elsewhere, seeing as how successful this model has been amongst the lower income markets?

Fundamentally, all prepaid plans had one lumpsum upfront amount for the starter pack/activation and thereafter could be kept ‘alive’ by a minimum additional recharge or top up accordingly.

That is, this payment plan is flexible – it allows you to decide how much you wish to pay and when, though the absolute minimum frequency does depend on the provider’s rules and this decision making thus puts you in control of how much you spend and when; based on your incoming cash flow and current priorities for your discretionary spending.

Just for comparison’s sake, a mobile phone subscriber on a post paid model would have to pay the amount on the monthly bill by a certain date in order not to fall behind or incur penalties. That is, there is little flexibility (other than making actual changes to which plan you’re on) and the control of when to pay, how much to pay and the frequency of the billing is all in the hands of the service provider. The user (customer) has little control over time and money.

Now, bringing it back to our findings from the workshop on the financial planning behaviour observed among those at the BoP where we see that it is their ability to control the elements of time – periodicity & frequency; money – cash or goods and also social capital or in this context “trust” that in fact allows them to increase their ability to plan their ‘cash flow’ and ‘working capital’ across their multiple sources of income and resource allocation, thus decreasing the variance between their income and expenditure.

We can already see the fundamental reason why, then, the pay as you go model has been successful for those at the BoP, it is one of the very few that essentially puts control over time and money in the hands of the user (customer) rather than the provider (business). One could, at this point, say that the element of trust or social capital is also involved – just as Ram Babu’s neighbour who loaned him Rs 1300 was willing to let him pay it back in small sums from the money he earned daily from his wheat mill until the total was paid off, the prepaid model does not impose fixed amounts and payment schedules on the user. The transactions occur at the customer’s discretion.

“Kadogo” kerosene vs “Lumpsum” LPG: Trade-offs and cost/benefit analysis

Following a fascinating conversation with @bankelele and @majiwater on Twitter regarding the cost of kerosene, pay as you go models and relative benefits of each, I’ve been inspired to write this post exploring the topic further.

Before I proceed, I’d like to take a moment to clarify what the “Prepaid” in the title of this blog means: it is not so much the literal meaning of the word, as in you have paid in advance, although that is a part of the business model, but refers to the inherent flexibility built into the “pay as you go” business models. That is, the end user has a significant degree of control over the timing of a payment, the amount paid, the periodicity and frequency of such payments and that each time payments can be of different amounts. This underlying element of flexibility over time and money is what has made the prepaid business model so attractive and thus successful, among the majority of the world’s population on who manage on irregular income streams from a variety of sources. For those interested in diving into this finding further, you can read posts tracking the original field research in 2009 by using the category of “user research” on this blog.

The conversation this morning however was on the patterns of purchase observed in household energy consumption – kerosene and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) as well as which offered a better ROI, intermingled with class/status associated with choice of fuel and its availability in urban vs. rural areas. The following discussion is based on the Kenyan context but the exploration of cost/benefit and the flexibility inherent in business models for each, are of relevance to the larger discussion on payment plans for the informal economy.

Lumpsum LPG versus “Kadogo” Kerosene

One of the reasons that kerosene is so hard to dislodge as the fuel of choice among lower income populations (or, as may be the case, based on further research, “lower middle class” behaviour rather than income per se) is that it can be purchased on demand, on a pay as you go basis. That is, it can be purchased by quantity (as little as 1/4 litre) or cash amount (give me 50 Ksh worth of kerosene) as and when required. There is no imposition on the customer to purchase any fixed minimum quantity or cash amount.

LPG comes in cylinders of fixed sizes, that is the quantity and its cost is already preset, although one can see a wider range of smaller sizes across the developing world, offering a greater amount of flexibility than the single size/cost of the standard LPG cylinder more popular elsewhere. Thus, it requires a “lumpsum” to be available – either for first purchase or for a refill, although, over the duration of use, it provides a better return.

There is a discussion here that can happen on the “poverty premium” imposed by the lack of such lumpsums of cash available to those who manage on more irregular incomes, thus forcing them to use a more expensive fuel only due to the flexibility of its business model.

This morning we looked at actual numbers, from Nairobi where kerosene retails at 100 Kenyan shilling per litre while the average LPG cylinder purchase is around 4000 Ksh. Those who use kerosene as their “fast cooking” fuel, as opposed to slower charcoal for their primary cooking, still end up requiring a litre a day – that’s 3000 shillings a month, while the cylinder costing 4000 Ksh can be made to last for 3 months before requiring a refill. Refills cost 2000 Ksh.

This seems to imply that choosing LPG over kerosene is a no-brainer, and in fact, this cost benefit comparison was shared with me by Felix, who has often worked for me in the capacity of local guide and driver. He’s a taxi driver by trade, however, and its more likely that he will have available the lumpsum cash required for LPG purchase. For someone whose income sources do not offer the same quantity of lumpsums (smaller daily cash flow and transactions), this may not be a viable, though cheaper, option, forcing them to purchase more expensive kerosene simply due to the cash in hand constraints.

Another factor that plays here is urban fuel use patterns as opposed to rural. While the daily juggling between “fast cooking” and “slow cooking” items is the same, i.e. use cheaper fuel for things that take longer to cook and expensive fuel for speed or convenience (morning tea before rushing to work), those in small market towns and rural areas tend towards a combination of firewood and charcoal, while the housing layouts and structures force urban dwellers to use charcoal and kerosene. Firewood is forbidden and/or simply not available as it is on the shamba.

Again, as we know, long standing habits and behaviour migrate along with people, however, there may be interesting findings in taking a closer look at why existing behaviour is so hard to change and the correlating influence of business models.

One has heard this morning, however, that there is a pilot program in Nairobi which is testing the pay as you go / on demand purchase model even for LPG refills. This will be an interesting program to observe and I hope to be able to do so in the coming weeks.