Archive for the ‘Business Models’ Category

Frame Insights: Going back to first principles in the Innovation Planning Process

After conducting research, we need to bring structure to what has been found and learned. We sort, cluster, and organize the data gathered and begin to find important patterns. We analyze contextual data and view patterns that point to untapped market opportunities or niches. Finding insights and patterns that repeatedly emerge from multiple analyses of data is beneficial. ~ Vijay Kumar, 101 Design Methods

“It’s what happens after the research that’s important” is something I found myself saying three times to three different people in three different contexts over the past couple of days. Anyone can go out and interview users and beneficiaries. What’s important is what happens during the Analysis phase.

To ponder this in detail, I wanted to go back to first principles, and drill down into the post research stage where we are expected to frame our insights.

Vijay’s slide pops out 5 key outcomes from this phase, and these are critical for solution development in the subsequent phase. These 5 outcomes from analysis of the data collected during the research phase are:

  1. Looking for patterns
  2. Exploring systems
  3. Identifying opportunities
  4. Developing guiding principles
  5. Constructing overviews

It is this stage that distinguishes the quality of the outcome. Now, in the case of our work in the informal economy operating environment, we have built up an overview of the landscape over the past several years, primarily through immersion and thick data collection using design ethnography methods.

Starting from the purchasing patterns and buyer behaviour of low income consumers, back in early 2008, all the way through to the development of guiding principles such as flexibility, we have explored and mapped the ecosystem from numerous vantage points.

Today, our synthesis of user research does not happen in isolation from the body of work – intellectual property – that has been developed over time, through experiential and practical knowledge.

This, then, is what underlay my conviction when I spoke about the importance of the quality of interpretation of the data, and the transmutation of these interpretations into implemented insights in the form of new product features, service design elements, or nuances of the payment plan in the business model.

Increasingly, the Frame Insights phase of our work has led to the evolution of our understanding of the commercial landscape in rural and informal markets where incomes tend to be irregular and volatile, and infrastructure is inadequate or missing. It is this that I’ve been attempting to capture under the category of Biashara Economics.

It’s not Africa specific. The patterns hold, give or take ~30% margin for historical/cultural/social differences, across continents. That is because these patterns are the natural response to the common characteristics of seasonality, volatility, uncertainty, and unpredictability. And this is why one can see the success of the prepaid business model around the world.

It strikes me here that this in fact validates the methodology and approach to exploration and discovery in unknown contexts, something I had framed as the starting point for the very first such project almost a decade ago. Over time, I discovered how much the methods, as delineated by Vijay in Chicago, had to be adapted for the context but that is a topic for another time.

Prepaid Mobile: The Business Model that Empowers

It feels like a long time since I last pondered the nuances of the prepaid business model, until I came across some words written by Indian social media researcher Swati Janu. She documented her observations on the infrastructure of insecurity from the tenements of New Delhi.  There’s value in reflecting on how our understanding only increases over time, and we can never say that we’ve stopped learning

This sentence caught my attention:

From a rural population that is fast going online to the resourceful teens in urban slums, the lower income demographics are choosing to buy internet, through small but recurrent amounts, which enable them to straddle the line between affordability and aspiration.

The small but recurrent amounts – the Rs 10 mobile recharge Janu writes about – are the lifeblood of the prepaid payment plan for voice, text, and data (airtime) for the now ubiquitous cellphone that has changed the landscape of the developing world.

To enable the lower income demographic’s ability to straddle the divide between their aspirations and their ability to afford them is empowering. One could say that:

Prepaid is a business model that empowers aspiration, through affordability, incrementally.

Instant gratification has never been within their purview.

How the African movable assets bill can unleash innovation opportunities for the rural economy

Somewhere in Kenya, 4th June 2012 (Photo: Niti Bhan)

As Kenya joins Zambia and Zimbabwe in ratifying a Movable Property Security Rights Act, there’s a sense that the floodgates to innovation in access to finance might be taking place in rural Africa, south of the Sahara and north of South Africa.

Kenya’s law also goes beyond the cows and goats and allows a borrower to collateralise future receivables arising from contractual relationships.

How it ends up being implemented will set the stage for the next big disruption in financial inclusion. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the opportunity space for innovation in the informal and rural economy that dominates these operating environments.


1. A whole new bank, designed to meet the needs of rural Africa

Last night, a tweet by Charles Onyango-Obbo struck me forcibly, and reminded me of our Banking the Unbanked proposal crafted for ICICI back in January of 2007.

The very fact that contemporary thoughtleaders in the Kenyan banking industry are unable to take the concept of livestock as collateral for loans seriously, taken together with the deeply embedded assumptions of the formal economy’s financial structure leaves the door wide open to disruption.

It would not be too difficult to conceptualize a rural, co-operative bank custom designed for the local operating environment. In Kenya, where the mobile platform provides clear evidence of the viability, feasibility, and desirability of innovative financial tools and services that work for irregular income streams and provide the flexibility, reciprocity, and negotiability inherent in the cooperative local economies, such a bank could change the social and economic development landscape overnight.

In fact, one could conceivably foresee this “bank for rural Africa” scaling far beyond Kenya’s borders.


2. Insurance sector must respond to banking disruption

The domino effect of disruption in the banking sector should kickstart the stagnant insurance industry that has been ineffectually attempting to scale outside of the formal economy’s neatly defined boundaries. Bankers willing to take livestock as collateral for loans will therefore require insurance on their movable asset as a surety against the risk of disease, or drought.

Current products tend to emerge from the international aid industry, seeking to insure smallholder farmers against the shock of losing their livestock to climate related disasters such as prolonged drought, or an epidemic of illness. There is a dearth of relevant and appropriately designed insurance products from the private sector targeting the needs of the rural economy. For all the talk of African urbanization, even the most optimistic projections show that East Africa’s rural population will continue to dominate.

Thus, this an opportunity ripe for the plucking, given the right mix of product, pricing, and promotional messaging.


3. Disrupting assumptions of Poverty and Purchasing Power

Whether it is Kenya’s significant non profit sector or the nascent consumer oriented markets, the redrawn lines defining assets, collateral, and the floodgates of access to finance will require a complete overhaul in the way the population is segmented and measured.

Once these hundreds of movable assets have been valued, insured, and registered officially, even the most reluctant banker must now count the pastoralist among his wealthiest local clientele, able to draw a line of credit against his true wealth to the tune of thousands of dollars without feeling the pinch.


4. Triggering a rural investment and consumption boom

From mabati for a new roof and simti for the backyard wall, to the latest model smartphone or pickup truck, the concurrent boom in investments and consumption provides an ample playing ground for new products and services tailored for the contextual needs upcountry. Finally, Farmer Joe can install that solar powered irrigation pump for his orange groves in time to reap the next big harvest. And Mama Mercy can think of building up a nest egg of investments faster from the income provided by her farmyard animals.

Kagio Produce Market, Kenya, April 2013 (photo: Niti Bhan)

This might turn out to mean upgrading to a breed of high yield milch cows or being able to provide them with better quality feeds and medicines, but the financial bridge that a well designed strategy leveraging this movable assets bill and it’s timely implementation could mean the difference between the brass ring or treading water.


5. Trade and Commerce will open new markets

Given that the Kenyan Movable Property Security Rights Act 2017 goes beyond livestock to include other stores of wealth and value creation, there will be an undeniable impact on regional and cross border trade. No trader will give up the opportunity to leverage their existing inventory if it qualifies for additional credit that can be plowed back into the business.

On the road to Bungoma, Western Kenya, February 2016 (Photo: Niti Bhan)

Trader’s mindset and the documented biashara growth strategies already in evidence point clearly to the productive economic use of this access to finance rather than passive consumption alone. As their business grows, they will require a whole slew of tools and services tailored to their needs. This could be as simple as a basic book keeping app or as complex as customized commodity (assets, livestock, non perishable foodstuffs, grains and cereals) exchange platforms that integrate the disruptive new services percolating through the entire ecosystem.


In conclusion

These few steps outlined above are only the beginning of laying the foundation for disrupting the current social and economic development trajectory of small town and rural Kenya. I see immense potential for both direct to consumer as well as business to business segments for forward looking organizations seeking a foothold in the burgeoning East African markets.

We, at Emerging Futures Lab, would be pleased to offer you customized white papers on the opportunities for new products, services, and even business models, based on this emerging financial environment recently signed into law by President Kenyatta. Contact us for an exploratory conversation on the scope and scale of your particular industry’s needs. Our experienced team can help you maximize these opportunities from concept design and prototyping all the way through to path to market strategies.

Predictability is a business investment in the informal sector


New Delhi, India (Photo taken March 2017 by Niti Bhan)

Street vendors are often assumed to be livelihood actors, eking out a precarious living while darting in and out of traffic at the lights hawking their wares out of a basket or bucket. Not so in the south side of New Delhi where this trader in household linen and fine textiles has staked out his pavement storefront.

He’s not there everyday, unlike the fresh veg lady across the street, who has been there for the past thirty years, but he does show up every Saturday late in the afternoon, along with the housewares guys and stays until late in the evening. These vendors have been so predictable that they’re now known as the “Saturday market” although there are only three “shops” that one can see.

nightlightsHowever, each storefront is a joint effort by a number of vendors cooperating with each other to offer a larger, more attractive display and lights.

This predictability insures his reputation in the neighbourhood.

As global firms (MNC) pull back from emerging markets, what does this mean for Africa?

tumblr_nwsbz0ytDw1qghc1jo1_500Last week’s issue of The Economist drilled down deeper to cover the retreat of globalization – at least in the most visible form, that of the multinational brands dotting cityscapes around the world. The retreat of the global company, they trumpet, the end of Theodore Levitt’s vision.

Credit Suisse takes a concise yet comprehensive look at these weak signals in their well-written report that frames the situation as a transitional tug of war between globalization and multipolarity – an inflection point, rather than a retreat. They make it sound like missing the turn at an intersection and having to come back to the traffic lights to figure out which way to go.

Duncan Green of Oxfam captured the essence well:

But the deeper explanation is that both the advantages of scale and those of arbitrage have worn away. Global firms have big overheads; complex supply chains tie up inventory; sprawling organisations are hard to run. Some arbitrage opportunities have been exhausted; wages have risen in China; and most firms have massaged their tax bills as low as they can go. The free flow of information means that competitors can catch up with leads in technology and know-how more easily than they used to. As a result firms with a domestic focus are winning market share.

In the “headquarters countries”, the mood changed after the financial crisis. Multinational firms started to be seen as agents of inequality. They created jobs abroad, but not at home. The profits from their hoards of intellectual property were pocketed by a wealthy shareholder elite. Political willingness to help multinationals duly lapsed.

Of all those involved in the spread of global businesses, the “host countries” that receive investment by multinationals remain the most enthusiastic.

The first thing to note is that the global MNCs being considered by The Economist are primarily the legacy ones  – fast food chains like McDonalds and KFC (Yum Brands) – whose shiny logos used to represent the liberalization of the closed markets of India and China.

Even at powerhouses such as Unilever, General Electric (GE), PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble, foreign profits are down by a quarter or more from their peak.

or the few examples of emerging market brands that have gone global such as China’s Lenovo which purchased IBM’s Thinkpad and India’s Airtel which bought into the African market.

What’s being touted as their competition are regional brands, who aren’t as stretch out globally in terms of their supply chains, and less vulnerable to currency volatility. Further, the majority of these global brands are heavily dependent on their B2C marketing and sales – the question of whether they ever managed to understand their new markets is a topic for another post.

And so, we ask, what will this mean for the emerging economies of Africa, who are only now seeing the first fruits of FDI? Who will come and develop their consumer markets?

India and China apparently. And strategically – through unbranded affordable commodities and the acquisition of successful regional consumer brands – rather than the legacy MNC approach influenced by Levitt. Even Japan recognizes this, as they seek to piggyback on the Indian experience.The economics of scale that propelled the first rounds of growth for the manufacturers of washing machines and the automobiles never did make sense infrastructurally for the majority of the African consumer markets.

Instead, the patterns pointed out by The Economist and Credit Suisse imply that opportunities will lie among regional stars – Equity Bank of Kenya, for instance, whose regional footprint is surely but steadily creeping outwards across the East African Community and trading partners – or, the telcom brands such as Tigo (Millicom) who innovate for each of their local markets.

The jobs and exports that can be attributed to multinationals are already a diminishing part of the story. In 2000 every billion dollars of the stock of worldwide foreign investment represented 7,000 jobs and $600m of annual exports. Today $1bn supports 3,000 jobs and $300m of exports.

Godrej, for instance would be considered a regional Indian giant rather than a multinational in the conventional sense of a Unilever or P&G.

Where [MNCs] get constrained is, they are driven by lot of processes that are global. For a smaller organisation like us, we are completely empowered; decision-making is quick and we can initiate changes very fast. We are more agile and have an advantage over them.

Yet their expansion outside India shows a “pick and choose” strategy of markets they’re comfortable entering.

The group’s acquisition strategy hinges on identifying unlisted companies built by entrepreneurs looking for capital, picking up stakes and working with them to scale up their businesses.

At least two homegrown Kenyan FMCG brands – skincare by a global giant and cosmetics by private equity – have been acquired. As have snack foods, spices, dairy products, and other products that cater to local tastes. The best known being Fan Milk of West Africa. Private equity such as Abraaj make no bones about going after consumer driven opportunities.

Given these choices, sustainable African businesses who understand their consumer markets have an opportunity to establish their brands and grow – with the financial help that’s strategically becoming available.While Chinese imports make the market highly competitive and price conscious, fish and tyres are substitutable goods in a way skincare and cosmetics are not.

African consumer companies – formal, informal, or semi-almost there-formal – need to hustle right now.

The retreat of the MNCs offers a chance to exhale, and expand, and grow, but the advent of the East implies waking up to the need for serious strategic thinking about domestic comparative and competitive advantage – one of which is incomparable knowledge of local consumers, culture, and needs, and critically, experience of their vast informal sectors and cash intensive economies.

Detailed breakdown of Uber’s business model in Kenya puts spotlight on weaknesses

Latiff Cherono has just published an indepth analysis of what exactly it takes for an Uber driver in Nairobi to cover the cost of doing business. Here’s a snippet,

In this post, I try to understand the root cause of the disconnect between how the customer (who defines the value), Uber (the service that controls the experience) and the driver (the one who provides the service).

He accompanies his analysis with a detailed breakdown of costs and revenues, such as the table below, and others in his post.

new-picture-2And concludes:

The incentive for any person who starts a business is to maximize their profits. As such, we should expect that Uber drivers will approach their business in the same vein. However, the data provide by Uber to the driver is limited and prevents them from making informed decisions about generating revenue. For example, drivers do not know the estimate distance of a new trip when they accept it via the app. They are also penalized for not accepting rides (even if that trip may not make financial sense to the driver). All this is by design as Uber wants to maintain a steady supply of “online” vehicles on their network. One may argue that Uber is not being transparent enough with its independent contractors.

My thoughts:

Nairobi, Kenya isn’t the only ‘developing’ country context where Uber is creating unhappy drivers (and customers, one assumes) due to the design of their system. While most of the first world challenges to the company have come from the perspective of the formal economy and its regulations and laws regarding revenue, tax, employment status et al, the same cannot hold for the entirely different operating environment where the informal sector holds sway. And taxi driving is one such service.

Kampala, Uganda has it’s own challenges for Uber, including:

  • Uber drivers are reportedly leaving the service, switching off the Uber apps or not picking calls from corporate clients and those paying with a credit card. For the first four months after its launch, Uber was offering drivers incentives that saw them earn between Ush200,000 ($57.1) and Ush350,000 ($100) a week.
  • With increasing competition, drivers say that Uber’s incentive structure has been changing. In the first four months, Uber drivers were getting Ush15,000 (about $4) per hour, but this has since been scaled down to Ush10,000 ($2.9) and to Ush4,000 ($1.1) in incentives.

There is so much to be unpacked here, including the entire section on Uber’s own perception of how the market works, upto and including how to introduce time limited incentives, that I’ll follow up on it subsequently.

In this post, I wanted to highlight Latiff’s analysis and hard work pulling together the operating costs data, even as I leave you with this snippet from the article:

Uber’s commission in Nariobi was reduced from 25 to 20 per cent following protests by drivers in August, accusing the taxi hailing service of working them like slaves.

As I wrote earlier in the year, Uber could have done so much more in these markets, particularly on the path to formalization. Instead, they’re continuing on their journey as yet another smartphone app making life even easier while squandering the potential for real world change for the less privileged members of our societies.



Analysis of the mobile phone’s impact on cash flows and transactions in the informal sector

As we saw, Mrs Chimphamba needs to juggle time and money as part of her household financial management in order to ensure that expenses can be met by income. We also saw that the mobile phone was made viable and feasible by the availability of the prepaid business model that gave her full control over timing and the amount required to maintain it — how much airtime to purchase? when? how often? — all of these decisions were in her hands, within the limits of the operator’s business model. Now, we’ll take a closer look at the impact of the mobile on her domestic economy.

Readily available real time communication has helped Mrs C by speeding up the time taken for a decision on a purchase or a sale. That is, the transaction cycle has been shortened. As the speed of information exchange increases, it increases the speed of transactions — it shortens the duration of time taken to execute them from inception to completion. This, in turn, implies that more transactions can now take place in the same amount of time thereby increasing the frequency and the periodicity. When mobile money is present, one can see that as both quantity and frequency of transactions speed up, so does the cash flow. We’ll come back to this factor.

To explain using a real life example, Mrs Chimphamba does not need to sit at her homestead wondering if today someone will pass by to purchase a bottle of wine. Similarly, Mrs C’s customers do not need to go out of their way to pass by her homestead to see if the wine is distilled and ready for sale, or whether it will still take another day or two for the next batch to be ready. Further, the uncertainty of whether they’ll have cash on hand on that future day, or if they’ll return as promised are all elements that real time communication have minimized.

Now, Mrs C is able to let her regular customers know that she’s making a new batch for sale and do they want to reserve a bottle for purchase? It allows her customers to put aside cash for this purchase. She is even able to accept and execute larger orders for some future date, and even accept some cash advances if her operating environment includes the presence of a mobile money transfer system such as those more prevalent in East Africa. This in turn changes her purchasing patterns and decision making as the pattern of cash flows — timing and amount — changes. She isn’t making do anymore on an unknown and predictable sale based on sitting and waiting for someone to show up to buy her wine.

Real time communication has improved the decision making cycle for both buyer and seller in a transaction as it counteracts uncertainty and information asymmetry even while speeding up the time take for a decision.

As the quantity and frequency of transactions increase— first, in cash conducted face to face, and then later, remotely by mobile money, regardless of the size of each transaction — the change in cash flow patterns begins to smooth out the volatility (the uncertainty factor has changed completely) between incoming and outgoing, as well as the decisionmaking involved. That is, the gap between income and expense starts becoming less in terms of both timing and amount — there is the possibility of a steady stream in the pipeline. Calculus offers hints of how the curve can begin to smoothen out as frequency and periodicity of transactions begins to accelerate.

Size of transactions thus begin to matter less in that the incoming amount now does not need to be so large as to cover expenses for an unknown duration of time before the next incoming payment; nor do expenses have to be tightly controlled constantly due to the uncertainty of the duration of time before the next payment, and the types of expenses incurred during this unknown period of time.

So the boost in decision making — how long it takes to complete a transaction, how often can transactions be completed — enabled by the real time communication facilitated by the mobile phone; plus the attendant immediacy of receiving payment via the same platform is the root of the improvement in the hyperlocal economy and consumption patterns among the informal sector actors. This is why large established traders (with sufficient financial cushion) were heard to observe that both purchasing power and consumption patterns had changed in their market town (Busia, Kenya Jan 2016) in the past 10 years since first the mobile phone, and later, mPesa, were introduced into their operating environment.

Uncertainty and information asymmetry that have long characterized the fragile and volatile nature of the informal sector operating in inadequately provided environments with unreliable systems and scarce data. In the next chapter we’ll step back and take a broader look at communication, connectivity, and commerce in the informal economy starting with the description of the operating environment’s characteristics regardless of continent.

This is part of a newly launched Medium where I will write in detail on economic behaviour and its drivers in the informal economy. Much of it draws upon the original research in the field from 2008-2009 which was shared on the prepaid economy blog. I found that time had passed and increased my understanding and I wanted to explore those discoveries in writing. Much of this is the foundation for recent works on ‘Mama Biashara‘.

Mobile Money in South Africa: The nature of the beast by Flo Mosoane

pexels-photo-3The 2015 State Of The Industry Report (SOTIR) for Mobile Money published by GSMA, reveals a picture of a service that continues to change the landscape of financial inclusion in developing and poor countries across the globe. In December of 2015, the industry processed transactions in excess of a billion, most of which were in Sub Sahara Africa.

It seems however, that the continued success of Mobile Money eludes South Africa. What with the untimely death of Vodacom Mpesa after millions of Rands of reinvestment. Only 4 months after which MTN South Africa also announced that they are ceasing new registrations, marking the end of (Mobile Network Operator) MNO-lead Mobile Money deployments here.

Despite the large bang that MTN Mobile Money launched with, managing to sign over 2 million subscribers; at the end, Vodacom Mpesa only had just over 75 000 users, and MTN Mobile Money only about 140 000 or so users. A performance that neither of these well-established, successful, multinational MNO’s can be proud of.

We lament the apparent failure of Mobile Money in South Africa. It is well established that it has made a significant contribution to financial inclusion for underserved populations, and still presents significant opportunity to serve unbanked and underbanked communities.

This is a very special contribution by Flo Mosoane, writing from first hand experience on the ground on this subject. Do read the whole article.

Read On…

Le commerce direct des produits fabriqués en Chine est-il susceptible de perturber le marché des consommateurs africains?

This article has been translated into the French by Yacine Bio-Tchané

La première plateforme d’e-commerce spécialisée dans la vente directe des produits fabriqués en Chine vient d’être lancée au Togo, un pays de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Coincé tout comme la République du Bénin entre deux grands pays davantage connus, le Nigeria et le Ghana,le Togo est un petit pays francophone d’environ 7 millions d’habitants.

frenchComme l’énonce l’article :
« Nous voulons être les pionniers du commerce électronique au Togo et tirer parti de la forte coopération multiforme entre la Chine et le Togo, le premier pays carrefour commercial en Afrique de l’Ouest “, a déclaré Yuan Li, fondateur de JMSA-MALL, à Xinhua vendredi dernier à Lomé.
«Nous faisons la promotion d’échanges commerciaux directs, entre les clients africains et les commerçants chinois, de produits authentiques chinois à des prix intéressants “, a-t-il expliqué.

Des appareils électroniques jusqu’aux machines agricoles, la plate-forme offre une large gamme de produits chinois, qui sont vendus au Togo, ainsi que dans plusieurs autres pays de la sous-région tels que le Bénin, le Niger, le Ghana et le Burkina Faso.

Toutes les principales cartes de crédit sont acceptées comme mode de paiement ainsi que le système de paiement local via mobile money – Flooz (Moov). Il y a une politique de garantie avantageuse, et les articles sont entreposés à leur arrivée dans un bâtiment local pour les livraisons, au cas où l’article commandé n’est pas déjà disponible en stock dans leur entrepôt local. En outre, JMSA-MALL offre aux PME locales l’occasion de vendre leurs marchandises à travers leur plateforme. En apparence, cela semble bien – en supprimant les intermédiaires, ils peuvent offrir des meilleurs prix.

Yacine Bio-Tchané, notre collègue béninoise a aussi ses marques à Lomé. Ensemble, nous avons discuté de l’impact potentiel de ce lancement dans le contexte local, ainsi que des implications plus larges. Voici quelques réflexions:

Est-ce que cette plate-forme de vente « directe au consommateur» a un impact sur les commerçants locaux qui se rendent en Chine pour se procurer leurs produits?

Yacine a fait observer qu’à partir du moment où la plate-forme vend tout, des appareils électroniques aux machines agricoles, si certains éléments coûteux et lourds ne sont pas facilement disponibles au Togo, mais pour lesquels il existe une demande,ils peuvent être achetés en ligne et les utilisateurs pourront profiter de cette occasion. Aller à la Chine, identifier le bon produit au bon prix et l’expédier au Togo est long et coûteux (1). La plate-forme e-commerce réduit considérablement les coûts de transaction, ce qui la rend très attractive pour les acheteurs locaux.

Les produits chinois sont connus pour être moins cher (en prix et parfois en qualité) que les autres produits de sorte qu’ils sont très compétitifs et accessibles à de nombreux Togolais, surtout compte tenu du faible pouvoir d’achat. Si, au lieu d’aller au marché et de se promener à la recherche de ces produits, tout le monde pouvait acheter en ligne, les gens préfèreraient le faire. Cependant, alors que le Togo a 67% de pénétration des téléphones mobiles, moins de 10% de la population a accès à l’internet. Cela implique que la solution de commerce électronique est accessible à peu de personnes, mais cela pourrait déclencher une utilisation accrue de l’Internet par les commerçants.

Bien que l’article ne dise pas quels sont les principaux acheteurs (nationalité), il dit qu’ils couvrent plusieurs pays. Il ne serait pas surprenant de voir que la demande soit plus orientéevers le Ghana par exemple.

Le commerce direct de la Chine crée des marchandises

D’autre part, étant donné les coûts, le temps et les tracas pour aller en Chine à la source et expédier des produits à vendre au pays, cette plate-forme pourrait être attrayante pour les commerçants locaux eux-mêmes, à la fois au Togo, et au niveau régional. Comme le fait remarquer Yacine, la demande pourrait ne pas émaner du Togo même mais plutôt des pays voisins. Selon le fondateur de la plate-forme, le Togo est une plaque tournante du commerce en Afrique de l’Ouest pour la Chine.

La Chine a accru le commerce et les relations diplomatiques avec le Togo au cours de la dernière décennie. Il est même dit que la Chine est devenue le premier partenaire financier du pays. Les entreprises chinoises opèrent dans les industries, l’agriculture, le commerce et la construction. Ils créent de l’emploi et sont en concurrence avec des entreprises locales dans la vente de certains produits tels que les tissus.

Le fait que cette plateforme d’e-commerce soit tournée vers les consommateurs et qu’elle soit soutenue par un entrepôt local rempli de marchandises produits par la Chine est symbolique. Pour Yacine, le message le plus fort que la plateforme envoie est que les Chinois sont entièrement installés au Togo. Ce genre d’investissement à long terme, associé à leurs investissements accrus dans les industries, est déterminant. La Chine n’est plus un simple partenaire qui vient pour des projets périodiques, maintenant c’est un acteur important qui influe sur le comportement des consommateurs. Elle est sa propre image de marque, avec le lancement de ce consommateur face à la boutique en ligne.

Géographiquement, le Togo est bien placé pour toucher facilement l’Afrique de l’Ouest anglophone et francophone. L’e-commerce est déjà en train de décoller de façon exponentielle sur le marché géant du Nigeria, mais il en est encore à gagner du terrain dans les autres pays voisins. La Côte-d’Ivoire a quelques acquis, mais elle est encore à ces premiers jours. Traditionnellement, les Chinois ont attendu que les marchés soient à maturité avant de les inonder avec leurs prix plus bas – le marché du téléphone mobile illustre cela.
Ce lancement de la plateforme semble précoce pour les perspectives de l’e-commerce (de même que les paiements mobiles), mais pas du point de vue des tendances du marché et du commerce mondial.

Les industries manufacturières de la Chine ressentent les effets rétrécissement du marché mondial, et les problèmes de surcapacité. Le marché intérieur a toujours l’axe majeur de leur développement, ceci semble êtreleur première tentative sur un autre marché. Le commerce informel entre l’Afrique et la Chine n’a pas entièrement été sous le radar –les compagnies aériennes africaines et chinoises ont été les premières à répondre à la demande. En outre, il y a d’autres changements en cours de réalisation qui impacteront directementl’Afrique de l’Ouest, comme cerécentarticle de CNN le montre:

Au cours des 18 derniers mois, bien que des chiffres concrets soient difficiles à trouver, des centaines – peut-être même des milliers – d’Africains sont soupçonnés par les habitants et les chercheurs d’avoir quitté Guangzhou.

La dépréciation du dollar dans les pays d’Afrique occidentale dépendante du pétrole, associée à la politique d’immigration hostile de la Chine, le racisme généralisé, ainsi que le ralentissement et l’échéance économie, indique que Guangzhou perd son avantage concurrentiel. […] Alors que la Chine devient moins rentable, de nombreux Africains ressentent avec plus d’acuité les aspects négatifs de la vie la bas.

Si la montagne ne peut pas soutenir Mahomet, pourrait-elle au moins réduire les coûts en construisant des entrepôts appuyés par des marchés en ligne? Les centres d’entreposage de marchandises chinoises ne sont pas inédits sur le continent africain, l’Afrique australe dispose déjà d’un certain nombre, tandis qu’il a été dévoilé que la Chine finance la plate-forme logistique de la Tanzanie. Comme l’a déclaré le fondateur de JMALL, cette “plaque tournante du commerce qu’est le Togo semble être un nouveau pays partenaire. Est-ce que la plateforme d’e-commerce est un projet pilote pour tester efficacementle coût régional du marketing B2C?

Les géants du e-commerce Chinois comme Alibaba ont montré la voie avec les efforts de leur agent pour ouvrir les marchés ruraux difficiles de l’arrière-continent. C’est seulement une question de temps avant qu’un autre type d’intermédiaires n’apparaisse au Togo (et ailleurs) et offre des services similaires pour faciliter le commerce. Cette fois, cependant, ce sera depuis le confort de leur pays d’origine, car ils assistent les commerçants et les consommateurs avec les achats en ligne. Pris ensemble avec des investissements continus dans les systèmes de paiement via mobile money, les initiatives d’inclusion financière et l’utilisation du modèle d’agence – la Chine semble avoir saisi un excellent espace d’opportunité à explorer.


(1) Voici un documentaire qui suit un commerçant congolais pendant son shopping à Guangzhou, en Chine, cherche à remplir son conteneur avec des marchandises exportables. Il donne une assez bonne idée de l’expérience client.

Will Cross Border Mobile Money Boost intra African Trade and Regional Integration?

cross border MMTOver the past 18 months, since I started tracking the spread of cross border mobile money payments across the African continent, there has been visible progress in leaps and bounds, as documented by the GSMA. In fact, back then, I’d written:

Top down reportage on banking and interoperability seems to focus only on the customer’s individual needs, and overlooks their agency as entrepreneurs, traders and business people.

The map above has been taken from the GSMA’s Mobile Economy 2015 report, and the 2016 report reproduces it as well. Now, the role of mobile money transfers in facilitating cross border and intra African trade is finally being recognized for its potential and cost savings. Author Ashly Hope lays out clearly the high cost of remitting money in the SADC region:

cost of remittance sadcSouth Africa and Tanzania are the largest sources of remittance, yet their transaction costs are significantly higher than the Sub Saharan average of 9.7% (which in turn is the most expensive region in the world where the average cost is now ~7.4%). And this is only one regional grouping.

It is when we look at the penetration of mobile money, that we see something that hints at the digital economy emerging in East Africa (birthplace of Mpesa in case you weren’t aware).

Given teh pace of change, we can safely assume that the figures given above have only increased since 2014. Tanzania’s mobile money market has been frequently cited for its growth and opportunity – it is also outstanding for the level of interoperability within the telco ecosystem.

In the previous article, we noted that Tanzania had just flagged off a Chinese funded regional logistics and trade hub which would include a local footprint for the distribution and sales of China made goods in the form of a warehouse.

“The trade hub will also help Tanzanians especially women to buy products here instead of travelling all the way to China, hence cutting costs down,” said Ms Janet Mbene, Deputy Minister of Industries & Trade.

Savings on travel and shipping is bound to translate into increased inventory purchases, and thus value and/or volume of goods traded. Taking the context of the entire East African Community’s “informal” cross border trade, and the visualization of the interconnections now provided by various mobile money transfer systems in the map above, one can safely start to forecast the potential gains to both traders, and the telcos, as the landscape of the local operating environment begins to change in response to infrastructure investments.

Whether this potential opportunity is exploited by the region’s traders, or overlooked and missed due to the existing digital divide, is the question that remains to be answered. The EAC’s mobile economy (~96% prepaid) needs to start thinking of itself as more than just telco led and impact hub driven, and get down to the ground at the fringes for the future.